At any hour of the day, Monday to Friday, you can check additions to our news & commentary database here:

 

        http://www.atlanticpacificalliance.com/news.html

 

 

Experts Fault Reasoning in Surveillance Decision / World is watching as Iraq war tests U.S. mettle / Islamo-fascist terror could trigger a brutal Western response / Media Intimidation / Europe's Fellow Travelers / The Ideology of Defeatism / Someone at the New York Times knows who the REAL enemy is / The Real Body Count / Driven to Aliya / Israel's Biggest Mistake / Deja vu / Massive bombing of the entire nation of Lebanon / Annan jets off for a Nasrallah crowning? / Counterterrorism Cooperation with Pakistan / International Law and the Nation-State at the U.N. / Triumphant Iran's Next Moves / Ned Lamont: Henry Wallace with a Website / France stepped forward to act as a broker of peace in Lebanon / Condi gets a lesson in French and U.N. credibility / A desperate new manhunt for the Senate's masked spender / Asbestos: Another court cracks down on the legal scam / Pre-Emptive Surveillance / The public sector pension burden poses a test of political wills / More firms are going private -- no surprise given today's culture of over-regulation / Malaria's Toll / Seoul must not revert to its softly-softly approach / How Sri Lanka's government can win the war / Time to retool U.S.-Taiwan military affairs / World War II continues to haunt Japan / Intellectual diversity not welcome / Open Letter to Günter Grass / Photojournalism in Crisis / Is IPCC AR4 an Advocacy Document? / Article entitled “Climatology Between Science and Politics” / Plant diversity- Another Climate Metric / Near-normal Atlantic hurricane season / Politicized Science Produces Bad Public Policy / On WHO’s call to have all clinical trials registered / Performance of Official and Unofficial Genetically Modified Cotton / LY038, QPM, high lysine level corn / Articles in Spanish

 

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Today's articles (free of charge, sometimes registration needed):

 

Politics/Economy/Society

 

-  Experts Fault Reasoning in Surveillance Decision, by Adam Liptak, New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/19/washington/19ruling.html

Even legal experts who agreed with a federal judge’s conclusion on Thursday that a National Security Agency surveillance program is unlawful were distancing themselves from the decision’s reasoning and rhetoric yesterday.

 

They said the opinion overlooked important precedents, failed to engage the government’s major arguments, used circular reasoning, substituted passion for analysis and did not even offer the best reasons for its own conclusions.

 

-  World is watching as Iraq war tests U.S. mettle, by Mark Steyn

http://www.suntimes.com/output/steyn/cst-edt-steyn20.html

 

-  Moment of Truth: Islamo-fascist terror could trigger a brutal Western response. by Ralph Peters

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/moment_of_truth_opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm

 

-  Media Intimidation, by Joel Mowbray

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23933

How terrorists control the medium and the message

 

-  Europe's Fellow Travelers, by Serge Trifkovic

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23915

Paving the road to Eurabia takes a lot of hard work

 

-  The Ideology of Defeatism, by William R. Hawkins

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23948

Do the American people have the will to fight the terror threat?

 

-  Confronting the Post-9/11 World. By David Forsmark

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23954

Someone at the New York Times knows who the REAL enemy is

 

-  The Real Body Count, by Larry Schweikart

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23950

Why can’t they tell us the most important number of all?

 

-  Driven to Aliya, by Hilary Krieger

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23944

UK Jews say anti-Semitism chief factor in their decision to move to Israel

 

-  Israel's Biggest Mistake, by Ben Shapiro

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23925

Since Israel accepted the cease-fire, its aura of invincibility has been shattered

 

-  Deja vu, by Judith Apter Klinghoffer

http://hnn.us/blogs/entries/29322.html

Massive bombing of the entire nation of Lebanon

 

-  Turtle Bay Does Beirut, by Claudia Rosett

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjVlZjMzNGY4OGMxOGUwNWM2MjQwZjAyYjVjZjM4M2M=

Annan jets off for a Nasrallah crowning?

 

-  Three Steps to Improve Counterterrorism Cooperation with Pakistan by Lisa Curtis

http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/wm1197.cfm

Recent terrorist plots demonstrate the need for more effective engagement with Pakistan

 

-  International Law and the Nation-State at the U.N.: A Guide for U.S. Policymakers by Lee A. Casey and David B. Rivkin, Jr.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/WorldwideFreedom/bg1961.cfm

Sovereignty is not some abstract concept that can or should be redefined by an indeterminate and inchoate “international community.” It is the right of the American people, and of all peoples, to govern themselves in accordance with their own institutions and by their own consent. It is the basis of our right to make law for ourselves.

 

-  Triumphant Iran's Next Moves, by Peter Brookes

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed081606a.cfm

Ignore Israel's and Hezbollah's boastful claims of victory in their bitter, but largely inconclusive war. The real winner of the month-long conflict is neither - it's Iran.

 

-  Ned Lamont: Henry Wallace with a Website. By Barry Casselman

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/08/henry_wallace_with_a_website.html

 

-  With doublespeaking France, honor gets lost in translation. By Jules Crittenden

http://news.bostonherald.com/columnists/view.bg?articleid=153613

France stepped forward to act as a broker of peace in Lebanon

 

 

Education/Culture/Media

 

-  The Diversity Double Standard. By George Leef

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23935

Intellectual diversity not welcome

 

-  An Open Letter to Günter Grass, by Daniel Johnson

http://www.nysun.com/article/38082

 

-  A Nation Betrayed: Open Letter to Günter Grass Part II, by Daniel Johnson

http://www.nysun.com/article/38185

 

-  Photojournalism in Crisis. By David D. Perlmutter

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/shoptalk_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003019475

Amid the controversy over certain pictures from Lebanon, a longtime student of war photography asks, "I'm not sure if the craft I love is being murdered, committing suicide, or both."

 

 

Science/Health

 

-  Comparing the Performance of Official and Unofficial Genetically Modified Cotton in India. By Stephen Morse, Richard Bennett, and Yousouf Ismael

http://www.agbioforum.org/v8n1/v8n1a01-morse.htm

Results suggest that the official Bt varieties (MECH 12 and MECH 162) significantly outperform the unofficial varieties in terms of gross margin. However, unofficial, locally produced Bt hybrids can also perform significantly better than non-Bt hybrids, although second-generation (F2) Bt seed appears to have no yield advantage compared to non-Bt hybrids but can save on insecticide use. The paper explores some of the implications of this ranking.

 

-  All about Anna Salleh's beat up, and questions she should have asked Associate Professor Jack Heinemann. By David Tribe

http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2006/08/all-about-anna-sallehs-beat-up-and.html

LY038, QPM, high lysine level corn

 

 

Technology

 

FRIENDSTER IS RECEIVING $10 million from investors hoping to revive the social-networking firm.

*  *  *

Online gambling companies are seeking out new markets after the demise of BetOnSports in the U.S., but Asia and Europe are set for slow growth.

*  *  *

Telstra said it expects to pay dividends of 28 Australian cents a share for the fiscal year to June 2007 but can't provide an outlook on the payment for the following year because of regulatory uncertainty.

*  *  *

N.R. Narayana Murthy stepped down as chairman of Infosys after 25 years at the helm of the company he co-founded with six other software engineers.

*  *  *

As China's Internet booms, homegrown businesses are often reaping the biggest rewards -- a departure from many other consumer industries in China where foreigners have dominated.

*  *  *

RadioShack said Claire Babrowski, its president and chief operating officer, will leave the company after she was passed over for the chief executive post.

*  *  *

EchoStar suffered legal setbacks that could force the satellite-TV firm to pay big damages and deactivate digital video recorders.

*  *  *

Microsoft fell far short of its goal to buy back up to $20 billion of its shares, but analysts attributed the results to investors' belief that the stock will climb higher.

*  *  *

Verizon Considers Bid for Landlines

Quattrone May Avoid Third Trial

• McAfee Gets Subpoena

                    >>>>>>>>>>> You can request these articles at no charge. Call Jorge Mata at any time to ask.

 

Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

 

 

In Spanish: Normas surrealistas para librar una guerra, por Victor Davis Hanson

http://www.libertaddigital.com/opiniones/opi_desa_32925.html

 

-  Nunca nos darán tregua con las treguas, por Thomas Sowell

http://www.libertaddigital.com/opiniones/opi_desa_32912.html

 

-  Sonría, por favor. Por Rafael Rubio

http://www.libertaddigital.com/opiniones/opi_desa_32919.html

Sanidad cubana y Castro

 

-  Comentario sobre BBVA's "Estudio sobre la Conciencia y Conducta Medioambiental en España". Por Alberto Illán Oviedo

http://www.juandemariana.org/comentario/797/

 

-  La complicidad de la ONU con Hezbolá, por Julia Weller

http://libertaddigital.com/php3/opi_desa.php3?cpn=32892

 

 

============================

Wall Street Journal (excerpts)

 

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

 

 Mission Unaccomplished

Condi gets a lesson in French and U.N. credibility.

 

 Senate's Most Wanted

A desperate new manhunt for the Senate's masked spender.

 

 Unbundling Asbestos

Another court cracks down on the legal scam.

 

 

COMMENTARY

 

 JAMES Q. WILSON

Pre-Emptive Surveillance

To connect the dots, you must first discern them.

 

 E.J. MCMAHON

Public Pension Price Tag

The public sector pension burden poses a test of political wills.

 

 MAURICE R. GREENBERG

Regulation, Yes. Strangulation, No.

More firms are going private -- no surprise given today's culture of over-regulation.

 

 JASON L. RILEY

Malaria's Toll

A hedge-fund manager turns his outrage over malaria fatalities into an obsession.

 

 

OPINION EUROPE AND OPINION ASIA

 

 Let Them Eat Rice

Seoul must not revert to its softly-softly approach.

 

 Colombo's Challenge

How Sri Lanka's government can win the war.

 

 DAN BLUMENTHAL AND GARY SCHMITT

'A Strange Calculus'

Time to retool U.S.-Taiwan military affairs.

 

 GEORGE F. WILL

Japan's Ever-Present Past

World War II continues to haunt Japan.

 

Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

 

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Mission Unaccomplished
August 21, 2006; Page A10

Most U.N. resolutions don't have the shelf-life of a gallon of milk, which isn't always a bad thing. But in the case of Resolution 1701 -- the cease-fire agreement for Lebanon and Israel adopted unanimously this month by the Security Council -- things seem to be going sour even faster than that. And that is cause for serious unease.

On Thursday, Jacques Chirac confirmed a Le Monde report that his government was prepared to offer only some 200 combat engineers (in addition to the 200 French troops already in Lebanon) to what is supposed to be the resolution's centerpiece: A 15,000-man U.N. force that will help the Lebanese army patrol their southern border and ensure that Hezbollah will no longer use the area as a staging ground for future attacks against Israel.

Given that the French contingent was supposed to be at the vanguard of this enhanced force, it's unclear whether other nations will be willing to chip in with troops of their own. All of this after the French used the promise of a robust, French-led international force to get the U.S. and Israel to agree to a cease-fire and withdrawal. Even less reassuring is the insistence by French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie that her troops will remain in the lead only until February, after which, apparently, it's salaam and adieu.

Then there is the delicate matter of disarming Hezbollah. Although the terrorist militia is so far abiding by the cease-fire, its leader Hassan Nasrallah made a televised statement last week insisting it was the "wrong time" to discuss disarmament. "Who will defend Lebanon in case of a new Israeli offensive?" he asks.

The answer, presumably, is the Lebanese Army. By the terms of the 1989 Taif Accord that ended Lebanon's civil war, all domestic Lebanese militias should have long since disarmed or been folded into the regular army. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 of 2004 makes the same demand, as does 1701.

But the U.N. resolutions are dismayingly vague about just who, other than Hezbollah itself, is supposed to do the disarming. "I don't think there is an expectation that this [U.N.] force is going to physically disarm Hezbollah," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told USA Today last week. "You have to have a plan, first of all, for the disarmament of a militia, and then the hope is that some people lay down their arms voluntarily."

That's some "hope" on Secretary Rice's part. Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian Lebanese President who is nominally commander-in-chief of the army, has described the notion of disarming Hezbollah as "disgraceful": "How can they ask us to disarm while the blood of the martyrs is still warm?" Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has been less explicit but little better. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports that he has entered into negotiations with Mr. Nasrallah to arrange a modus vivendi between Lebanese troops and Hezbollah fighters still operating in the south of Lebanon.

Resolution 1701 also calls for an arms embargo on Hezbollah, although it specifies no penalties for those who break it. Anyone who has visited the remote, unguarded and unmarked hinterland between Syria and Lebanon must know that such an embargo will be very hard to enforce.

All of this explains Israel's increasing frustration with the cease-fire. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert bought into the agreement based on what now appear to have been insincere pledges that European troops would dominate the U.N. force. Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan is displaying his trademark even-handedness by denouncing Israel for trying to enforce the arms embargo while staying silent on the failure of everyone else to enforce it.

Israel can and will defend itself. The person who should really be furious here is Secretary of State Rice. She midwifed this cease-fire in the name of Lebanese democracy and as a way to use diplomacy, and the U.N., to tame Hezbollah and frustrate its patrons. She also believed French promises, so it'd be good to know if she now feels she was lied to. If this U.N. exercise turns out to be as feckless as it increasingly appears, U.S. credibility will also be a loser.

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Senate's Most Wanted
August 21, 2006; Page A10

There's a desperate new manhunt across the country, and the suspects are no less than 91 Members of the world's greatest deliberative body. One of these Senators has a big secret, and we should all have some fun as the foes of government pork try to run the mystery politician to ground.

Here's the forensic background: In April, Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn introduced legislation that would set-up a database to track an estimated $1 trillion in federal grants, earmarks, contracts and loans. Americans would be able to perform Google-like searches to track how their tax dollars are spent -- or frittered away, as the case might be. Twenty-nine Senators have co-sponsored the bill, and it's a testament to how concerned some are about Washington's miserable spending reputation that the list includes a who's who of Presidential hopefuls, from Hillary Rodham Clinton to George Allen to Bill Frist.

Yet most Senators clearly have no desire to shine a light on their spending practices, and at least one -- perhaps more -- has placed a "secret" hold on the legislation. Normally the architects of these holds are exposed within a few legislative days, but with Congress on recess the masked spender has so far evaded capture and public scrutiny.

Porkbusters, a grassroots outfit that fights government waste, found this untransparent move to stymie government transparency a bit rich, and last week launched a campaign to unveil the blocker's identity. It has asked its members to call on their Senators to disavow the hold, and the responses are trickling in. The group, which is tracking the results on its Web site (www.porkbusters.org), still has the pictures of 91 Senators under its "Suspect" list. The nine Senators who have denied placing the hold are now listed as "In the Clear"; they are Senator Coburn, Barack Obama, Mary Landrieu, David Vitter, John McCain, Ron Wyden, Richard Shelby, Jim Inhofe and Jeff Sessions.

If Congress insists on spending like there's no tomorrow, at least the Members could let the voters see what they're spending it on by passing Senator Coburn's reform. Will the real secret Senator please stand up?

--------------------------------------

Unbundling Asbestos
August 21, 2006; Page A10

Anything that causes the asbestos bar to pull its hair out is usually a step in the right direction. So judging by the meltdown in Michigan asbestos circles, that state's supreme court has taken a great leap forward in weeding out frivolous lawsuits.

The Michigan high court recently issued a surprising administrative order, outlawing the "bundling" of asbestos cases for collective settlement or trial. Bundling is a favorite tool of trial lawyers, as it allows them to attach hundreds or thousands of claims from the unsick to the claims of the few who truly are ill. The tactic clogs court dockets even as it increases pressure on companies to settle, or head to bankruptcy, or both. The Michigan court, in a 4-3 decision, ordered that from now on "each case should be decided on its own merits." Imagine that.

The Michigan order is the latest to suggest that judges are waking up the big con of asbestos litigation. Courts around the country have been creating "inactive" dockets, where they are parking the suits of healthy claimants -- that is, people who say they've been exposed to asbestos but show no signs of impairment. Bankruptcy courts are also cracking down on certain "prepack" filings designed to loot insurers and hand the proceeds to the lawyers. And individual judges -- perhaps inspired by the scathing silicosis opinion last year of federal Judge Janis Graham Jack -- are increasingly demanding more evidence that patients really are sick.

The Michigan court has spent three years studying how to respond to its asbestos mess. So it is especially notable that, rather than create an "inactive" docket, the court chose to address the root problem: tort bar abuse. Its order notes that the purpose of bundling was "to maximize the number of cases settled." In other words, the lawyers' strategy was to hit companies with so many claims that the firms would lose the stomach to go to court, and would settle instead. It worked: Michigan hasn't seen an asbestos suit make it through trial since 1999.

In his concurring opinion, Judge Stephen Markman also noted the opinion would "advance the interests of the most seriously ill asbestos plaintiffs whose interests have not always been well served by the present system." This was the judge's polite way of referring to the lawyers' practice of using sick people to "leverage" (his word) settlements for the non-sick. In particular, asbestos attorneys often agree to discount payouts to mesothelioma or other cancer victims so long as the defendant company also agrees to settle and pay its other, often frivolous, claims.

The three dissenting judges were close to apoplectic in their criticism of the order, and they've since been joined by Michigan trial lawyers who are predicting chaos and claiming rampant injustice. Their main gripe is that this order will further tangle the court system, since each case must now be tried individually. The argument is that bundling is necessary for court "efficiency."

That takes some nerve, since their willingness to file bogus suits is what clogged the courts in the first place. Asbestos litigation began as a way to address a legitimate wrong, but it spun out of control when judges showed they were willing to wave just about any claim through, regardless of merit. The tort bar then set up what became essentially a lawsuit-filing industry, complete with phony diagnoses by quick-buck doctors and screening companies who worked for the very lawyers bringing the suits. More than one grand jury is now looking into this racket.

Our own guess is that if the Michigan high court sticks with this rule -- it is allowing public comments up to December -- the result will be a huge reduction in the number of asbestos cases. The tort lawyers know they can't prove 95% of their suits in court, and they aren't likely to spend the money trying. Congratulations to the Michigan supremes for calling their bluff.

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Pre-Emptive Surveillance

By JAMES Q. WILSON
August 21, 2006; Page A10

Federal district court judge Anna Diggs Taylor has ruled that the warrantless interception of telephone and Internet calls between a foreign agent and American persons is illegal and unconstitutional. It is possible that she is right about the illegality, but she is almost surely wrong that it is unconstitutional. The government has appealed this decision to the Sixth Circuit. No one can say what it will decide, although other appeals courts have tolerated such surveillance. Ultimately the Supreme Court will have to decide the matter.

The constitutional arguments against the surveillance are unpersuasive. A Washington Post editorial dismissed them as "throat clearing." Judge Davis refers to the free speech provision of the First Amendment but fails to explain how listening to a conversation or reading email abridges anyone's right to speak. Taken literally, a constitutional ban on intercepts would make it impossible to overhear the mafia plotting murder or business executives fixing prices.

Of course, the ACLU and the other organizations that brought the suit are not criminal conspirators. But for their claims to be taken seriously they must show that they were materially harmed. This is because the Constitution only allows actual cases or controversies, not hypothetical or imaginary ones, to be heard in court. To meet that test, plaintiffs must show that they are the actual victims of a direct and palpable harm. Without that rule, judges would be issuing advisory opinions on what the law may mean, not in settling concrete disputes. Citing no factual evidence, Judge Taylor says that these organizations do have standing.

She also says that the surveillance violates the Fourth Amendment. But that provision only bans "unreasonable searches and seizures," not all searches and seizures. Customs agents have the right to search, without a warrant, you and your luggage (including your PC) when you enter this country. The Border Patrol can stop and search recent arrivals here when they are miles from the border. The Supreme Court has authorized customs officers to open incoming international mail without a warrant. It is not clear how a phone call or email originating overseas deserves more protection than clothing, the contents of a computer, or international mail. The Supreme Court has upheld all of these exceptions to constitutional limits on searches.

What is most striking about Judge Davis's decision is that she nowhere discusses the approval of warrantless searches by other and higher federal courts. In 1980, the Court of Appeals for the fourth circuit held (U.S. v. Truong Dinh Hung) that "the Executive need not always obtain a warrant for foreign intelligence surveillance." That is because a "uniform warrant requirement" would "unduly frustrate" the discharge of the president's foreign policy duties. It would "delay executive response to foreign intelligence threats" by requiring the judges instantly to make decisions about rapidly evolving events.

In 2002 the FISA review court itself held (In Re: Sealed Case) that the president "did have inherent authority to conduct warrantless searches to obtain foreign intelligence information." The Supreme Court has never spoken on this matter, but it is astonishing that Judge Davis never discusses the FISA and appellate court decisions that bear directly on this question.

It is possible that the surveillance violates the FISA law. That statute allows the government to tap the communications between foreign powers provided that there is "no substantial likelihood" that these communications will involve a "United States person." If an American will be part of the communication, then a warrant from the FISA court must first be obtained.

This statute, written in 1978, was aimed at dealing with foreign governments that wished us harm, but it preceded our experience with modern terrorists. Now we know that our cities can be attacked at any time in ways that cause thousands of deaths. Listening in on possible overseas terrorists who are talking to Americans is designed to find out who may attack us, when and how. Such eavesdropping is done to discover who is a terrorist. It is impossible to have "probable cause" to justify hearing such calls, and therefore impossible to obtain in a timely manner a FISA warrant.

No one outside the National Security Agency knows the details of our surveillance of communications between an American and a person living overseas, but there can be little doubt that it is intended not to bring criminal charges but to learn who is a terrorist before he has a chance to act. The surveillance is designed to provide investigatory leads, not prosecutions. These leads are, I suspect, sudden, ephemeral and suggestive. It is hard to imagine that, in this country's efforts to connect the dots, that our government should not be allowed to discover the dots.

The government argues that the president has independent constitutional authority to engage in warrantless searches across national boundaries and that this power was strengthened by a law, the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), that entitles him to use "all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001." The AUMF does not mention surveillance. But then it does not mention detaining terrorists, either, and yet the Supreme Court (in Hamdi) held this detention is a "fundamental and accepted incident to war." If detention, though not mentioned, is legal, is surveillance, which is not mentioned, also legal? That is a bullet the Supreme Court will have to bite. In my view, the war against terrorism requires both surveillance and detention as well as armed conflict.

But suppose that neither the president's constitutional powers nor the AUMF justify an exception to the FISA rule. Congress can correct this problem by amending FISA to create an authorization for warrantless surveillance that is directed at people living overseas, even if they communicate with someone living here, provided that this cannot lead immediately to criminal prosecution. If the surveillance produces leads as to who is a terrorist, then a FISA warrant can be obtained to authorize acquiring supportive evidence.

The war on terror is underway. It will last through my lifetime and that of my children. America will almost certainly suffer further terrorist attacks. We must be prepared to take reasonable steps to protect ourselves. The Constitution, as Justice Robert Jackson said, is not a suicide pact. But neither is it a blanket authorization for any executive action. Congress ought to be able to clarify how far we can go. It will be interesting to see who votes for and who against a reasonable authorization for a bolder antiterrorism measure.

Mr. Wilson, who has taught at Harvard, UCLA and Pepperdine, is the author, with John J. DiIulio, of "American Government" (Houghton Mifflin, 10th ed., 2005).

--------------------------------------

Public Pension Price Tag

By E.J. MCMAHON
August 21, 2006; Page A10

The recent enactment of sweeping changes in federal laws governing private pension plans, the issuance of a scathing auditors' report on the collapse of San Diego's pension fund, and the disclosure of potential shortfalls in New York City's pension funds all point to what should be the nation's next big target for financial reform. Because their size and complexity offer such a wide field for abuse, state and local retirement systems pose a significant moral hazard -- threatening the long-term fiscal stability of many of their sponsors.

San Diego's storyline -- marked by deliberate underfunding, increases in already generous retirement benefits and the use of debt to refinance payments -- has had eerie parallels across the country. Only 43 of the 125 retirement systems in the most recent Public Funds Survey were within 10% of full funding status; one-quarter had actuarial funding ratios below 80%. But if private-sector accounting standards were applied to these systems, they would all look much worse.

[chart removed http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/ED-AE625A_mcmah_20060820194550.gif]

In determining a system's necessary funding levels, a crucial consideration is the discount rate applied to future obligations: The lower the rate, the larger the contributions required to maintain "fully funded" status. Private plans are required to discount their liabilities based on corporate bond rates -- which are usually lower than these plans' projected returns on investments.

Public funds, however, are allowed to discount their long-term liabilities based on the assumed annual rate of return on their assets -- which, for most public funds, is pegged at an optimistic 8% or more. In other words, the risk premium in the investment target is compounded in the liability estimate. (This accounting twist also explains how politicians can claim, with straight faces, that pension obligation bonds are a nifty arbitrage play.)

If the liabilities of public pension funds were valued on the same basis as private funds -- using, for example, the 30-year municipal bond rate as the discount rate -- funding requirements would be dramatically higher. Estimates of the nation's real public pension funding shortfall range from an added $500 billion for state retirement systems to at least $1 trillion for all public systems.

The 8% rate of return assumption, while shared by some major corporate plans, is certainly open to question. But public pension fund managers are in a pickle: If assumed returns were reduced, even "fully funded" systems like New York's would find themselves tens of billions in the hole -- as shown by alternative calculations buried in financial reports for Gotham's retirement systems. And so, in the name of protecting taxpayers from having to pay higher contributions in the short term, funds expose them to more volatility and risk over the long term.

Public pension funds used to be run on more of an insurance model, heavily reliant on fixed-income securities. But over the past 40 years, the vast expansion of government at every level has vastly expanded the pool of public pension liabilities. This leads to a vicious cycle: As the employee head count rises and unions lobby for bigger pension entitlements, funds feel pressure to pursue riskier investments with higher returns -- which explains their increasing reliance on stocks, as shown in the nearby chart. But when returns exceed expectations, as in the boom market of the 1990s, politicians and fund trustees feel irresistible pressure to raise benefits again.

Meanwhile, their increased presence in the equity markets has turned public pension funds and their managers, like California treasurer and gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides, into major players on Wall Street. And as my colleague Nicole Gelinas has documented, in the wake of corporate accounting scandals, public fund managers have pushed further into corporate boardrooms.

In reforming private sector pensions, Congress and President Bush were motivated largely by a desire to provide greater financial security for current and future retirees threatened by corporate bankruptcies. The public sector is different: Governments can't go out of business, and their retired employees are in no danger of being left high and dry. Guaranteed under state laws and constitutional provisions -- that is, by the taxpayers -- public pensions are far more secure and more generous than those offered by private-sector plans.

The overriding concern of public pension reform should be to reduce the taxpayers' exposure to accounting and financial risk -- now and in the future. Here are four essential steps towards that goal:

• Shift to defined contribution plans for all future workers. In short, stop the bleeding. Because traditional defined-benefit plans rely on contributions from younger employees to finance the benefits of long-term workers, this shift is in no way a quick fix for under-funded systems. But the alternative -- maintaining defined benefit plans, but with lower benefits for the newly hired -- is worse. As long as an open DB plan exists, it will be a target for political and financial manipulation.
 
  Immediately recognize and fund the full cost of any benefit increase. The ability to amortize benefit increases over decades is one reason why politicians and unions have been able to sell pension sweeteners as a free lunch. Closing this window would be a disincentive for future giveaways.
 
• Expand financial reports to include alternative funding assumptions. Simply requiring public funds to adhere to the same financial standards as private funds sounds tempting but it would be extremely disruptive, sharply increasing volatility and boosting contribution requirements. Following the lead of New York City's actuary, government financial reports should clearly show how funds would balance if assets were marked to market and if liabilities were discounted at market rates.
 
• Gradually lower the required rate of return -- and invest accordingly. Over the long term, this is an essential step for reducing the taxpayers' collective risk. It also would reveal the true economic costs of current benefits.
 

Fraught with financial complexity, the growing public sector pension burden fundamentally poses a test of political wills. Although benefits for their current members are legally untouchable, union leaders derive substantial power from the existing system and will battle any attempt to change it -- as they did in beating back Arnold Schwarzenegger's attempt last year to establish a 401(k) plan in California. Today, improved accounting practices can at least force elected officials to face up to the price tag of their rash promises. In the future, they must turn from union lapdogs to taxpayer watchdogs.

Mr. McMahon is director of the Empire Center for New York State Policy and a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

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Regulation, Yes. Strangulation, No.

By MAURICE R. GREENBERG
August 21, 2006; Page A10

Three words describe the prevailing sentiment in today's business environment -- private is beautiful. Increasingly, major U.S. corporations are removing themselves from the public equities markets and going private.

Why? To a large degree, because the cost of government regulations has become unbearable. HCA, the largest hospital operator, recently announced a record $21 billion deal to take itself private. Among reasons cited by the company's founder, Thomas Frist, for departing the NYSE: the untenable cost of complying with Sarbanes-Oxley. The recent trend of major companies going (or planning to go) private -- Hertz, Toys "R" Us, Kinder Morgan, Albertson's, Univision -- is not coincidental. And that's only half the tale. While corporations are retreating from our public capital marketplace, exchanges in the rest of the world are thriving at our expense. Of the 25 largest IPOs worldwide in 2005, only one took place in the U.S. Most went to London or Hong Kong. Even Australia weighed in with three.

Credit the culture of over-regulation that has now infused America's governmental institutions. That's why no one should be surprised that the group taking HCA private is doing so to make the health-care giant grow. A public corporation not only must contend with the pressure of satisfying shareholders, it must also worry that a negative comment from a regulatory agency could trigger a sudden, steep drop in its stock price. When management is diverted from focusing on creating shareholder value so as to contend with increasing regulatory demands, stagnation sets in. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out what happens to a business next. So in order to stay out of the crosshairs of government regulators, companies are avoiding risks they might otherwise take to innovate or grow their businesses: "Keep your head down."

This is not to say regulation isn't necessary. Quite the opposite. But it must be enlightened regulation -- the type that enables public markets to remain fair, reliable and profitable. Clearly the marketplace is trying to tell the U.S. something when so much of the world's IPO activity is moving offshore. Consider that in 2001 the U.S. accounted for 36% of global IPO activity in dollars. By 2005 that figure had plunged to 24%, a one-third loss in overall market share. In fact, last year a record 29 countries hosted IPOs worth $1 billion or more, meaning that the competition will only get tougher. In response, the U.S. must make itself more -- not less -- attractive as a financial marketplace.

None of these recent trends are in the national interest. Those making the laws governing corporate America should wonder if "the pendulum swings too far," as Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson commented when asked about recently adopted market regulations. They should look at Sarbanes-Oxley and decide whether the elaborate reporting and certification requirements it imposes on corporations are reasonable -- I'd think a company like GE would now be shipping off truckloads of paperwork to Washington. They should ask whether the cost of complying with the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board isn't too high, especially for smaller firms. They should ask if regulators are properly fulfilling their mission to maintain a level playing field in the securities markets, or whether they too often exceed that mission to the detriment of the corporate community.

In today's environment, the mere threat of an embarrassing lawsuit or the public release of potentially damaging charges -- regardless of veracity -- can throw management off its game for months, even years. As a result, CEOs of public corporations are losing their appetite for risk. They've grown hesitant to explore new ventures, new terrain. The answer, of course, is balance. Congress must fashion a regulatory scheme that demands transparency and fairness without stifling free enterprise and innovation. If corporations continue to shun our public equity markets, this era of heightened regulatory activity will ultimately be regarded as a failure. That is why policymakers must reform the system now according to the following principle: Enlightened regulation, yes. Strangulation, no.

Mr. Greenberg, former chairman and CEO of AIG, is chairman and CEO of C.V. Starr & Co.

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Malaria's Toll

By JASON L. RILEY
August 21, 2006; Page A11

Each year, malaria afflicts a half-billion people (roughly the population of North America) and kills a million of them (roughly the population of San Jose). And the latter is a low-end estimate. The actual number of fatalities is hard to pin down, since a body initially weakened by malaria becomes predisposed to other maladies.

But we do know that malarial mosquitoes are attracted to the tropical climes of sub-Saharan Africa, where they prey on impoverished populations that lack the sprays, screens and bed nets necessary to keep the insects at bay. Hence, some 75% of malaria victims are African pregnant women and children under five.

The economist William Easterly calculates that medicine that would prevent half of all malaria deaths costs only $0.12 a dose, and bed nets that would severely limit new cases cost a mere $4 apiece. "Preventing five million child deaths over the next ten years would cost just three dollars for each new mother," he writes in his book "The White Man's Burden."

Mr. Easterly argues that the tragic incompetence of the Western foreign aid industry -- $2.3 trillion spent, over five decades, but little forward advance -- stems from its overly bureaucratic approach to problem-solving. Agencies like the World Health Organization, the Global Fund and the World Bank traditionally have been staffed by well-meaning "planners," to use his term, who see "poverty as a technical engineering problem that [their] answers will solve."

What these organizations really need, says Mr. Easterly, are more of what he calls "searchers," or people who understand that "poverty is a complicated tangle of political, social, historical, institutional and technological factors." Where planners raise high expectations but take no responsibility for meeting them, searchers prefer to work case-by-case, using trial and error to tailor solutions to individual problems, fully aware that most remedies must be homegrown.

Lance Laifer, a hedge-fund manager in Connecticut, is a searcher. The horrors of malaria came to his attention in May 2005 via a Charlie Rose interview with Columbia University's Jeffrey Sachs, the development expert (and quintessential planner). "I didn't know anything about malaria," Mr. Laifer said in a recent interview. "I didn't know it still existed. I didn't know it was still killing people. I thought it was eradicated a long time ago. I was just flabbergasted."

Mr. Laifer turned his outrage into something of an obsession. He began researching malaria intensely; and he also ran some numbers. Bed nets, medications, insecticide, swamp drainage, etc., came to less than $10,000 for a typical African village of 1,000 people. "That's a doable number," Mr. Laifer concluded.

And then he picked up the phone, turning to friends and associates who help him organize an annual fundraiser to fight cancer. "I basically had a group of people that I know have very big hearts in this area, specifically in dealing with children," he says. "So I called them and said, 'What do you know about malaria and how many people are dying from it?'"

That was the starting point. Where it will end is anyone's guess. Inside of a year, and working with George Ayittey of the Free Africa Foundation, Mr. Laifer's efforts have spawned five "malaria-free zones" in Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya. Expansion to Ivory Coast and Benin is in the works. He adds that he has the financing to roll out additional zones this year but -- ever the searcher -- first wants to assess what's working and what isn't. If all is going well, "next year I see us doing something like 100 villages."

Mr. Laifer says a future focus will also be DDT, the pesticide used by Americans and Europeans in the 1940s to win domestic fights against malarial mosquitoes. Indoor spraying of DDT is by far the cheapest and most effective way to control the disease. One South Africa province employing DDT saw malaria infections and deaths drop 96% over a three-year span.

Yet Rachel Carson-inspired environmentalists have convinced many public health agencies that the chemical is dangerous. African nations, fearful that lucrative European and U.S. markets might ban their agricultural exports, make do with less-effective DDT substitutes. Though DDT, like any chemical, can be harmful in high doses, there's no evidence that using it in the amounts needed to combat malaria has any ill-effect whatsoever on humans.

Mr. Laifer's been unable to spray DDT in any of his malaria-free zones. "It's the best thing in our arsenal," he says. "We have a prodigious supply, it's cheap and we know it works. Our world leaders need to legalize DDT, and people in America need to get mad about this. . . . We need to have people walking around with signs that say, 'DDT saves lives, environmentalists take lives.'"

No one, least of all Mr. Laifer, is under the illusion that these initiatives can rid Africa of this plague anytime soon, if ever. Ultimately, large international aid agencies are the only entities with the scale to wage the necessary campaign. But that doesn't mean innovative efforts like Mr. Laifer's don't play an important role.

"All sorts of approaches need to be tried and we need feedback," says Roger Bate of Africa Fighting Malaria, a group working with Mr. Laifer to raise awareness about the effectiveness of DDT. "I like the private sector being involved. It can come in and show results in a malarial location and force [aid agencies] to actually deliver on their promises. What Lance can do is raise awareness and hopefully anger in the U.S. about countries not using all available methods, including DDT."

But Mr. Bate says the reality is that economic development is the only sure-fire anti-malaria strategy. "We eradicated malaria in Malaysia in the '50s and '60s, and in Singapore at the same time. It came back in Malaysia in the '70s but not in Singapore, and the reason it came back is that there wasn't enough wealth for people to have screens on the windows. Singapore's economy, however, grew rapidly, and there isn't a problem there anymore."

Which is why sub-Saharan Africa's poverty and poor infrastructure make it such a difficult case. And why widespread health problems will persist in the region until people are no longer living under exposed conditions and able to get proper treatment. Not that Mr. Laifer is bowed by these challenges. "All I'm trying to do is give these kids their lives back," he says. "Somebody needs to do this."

Mr. Riley is a member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board.

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Let Them Eat Rice
August 21, 2006

Here's a brain teaser: Last week, news reports said that North Korea may be readying its first nuclear-bomb test. Yesterday, South Korea withdrew its pledge to cut off humanitarian aid to the North until Pyongyang comes clean on its weapons programs. What is Seoul thinking?

Averting a human disaster, it says. Strong storms flooded the Korean peninsula last month, intensifying hunger in the N